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COMPONENT BREAKDOWN
🏦BANKS
🏦 BANKS (0-25pts)✓ Good: 0–5 — No bank stress, system stable
⚠ Watch: 6–12 — 1-2 banks declining, early warning
✗ Bad: 13–25 — Multiple banks falling, crisis risk

Key: KRE ETF -5% = 10pts alone. HSBC/DB stress adds 4pts each.
0/25
📰NEWS
📰 NEWS (0-20pts)✓ Good: 0–3 — No crisis keywords in news
⚠ Watch: 4–9 — Elevated banking stress language
✗ Bad: 10–20 — Critical keywords: "bank run", "FDIC seizure", "bailout"

Each critical headline = +6pts. High = +3pts. Medium = +1pt.
0/20
⚖️ASSETS
⚖️ ASSETS (0-20pts)✓ Good: 0–3 — Gold/BTC tracking banks normally
⚠ Watch: 4–9 — Mild flight to safety beginning
✗ Bad: 10–20 — Gold+BTC rising while banks fall = crisis flight

Gold+banks diverging = +7pts. GBP drop >0.8% = +4pts.
0/20
📊VIX
📊 VIX (0-15pts)✓ Good: VIX <15 — Calm markets, low fear
⚠ Watch: VIX 18–25 — Elevated fear, adds 3pts
✗ Bad: VIX >30 — High fear (+7). VIX>40 = panic (+15)

2020 COVID peak: VIX=89. 2008 GFC: VIX=80. Normal: 12–18.
0/15
📈YIELDS
📈 YIELDS (0-10pts)✓ Good: Spread >+0.5% — Normal/steep curve, banks profitable
⚠ Watch: 0 to -0.3% — Flat/mildly inverted
✗ Bad: Below -0.5% — Inverted = recession signal, bank margin crush

SVB failed at 2Y-10Y = -1.2%. Every major recession preceded by inversion.
0/10
🎲POLY
🎲 POLYMARKET (0-10pts)✓ Good: Bank failure <10%, recession <20%
⚠ Watch: Bank failure 10–20% — Smart money pricing risk
✗ Bad: Bank failure >20% — Real money betting on crisis

These are prediction markets with real money. More accurate than analyst surveys.
0/10
💳CREDIT
💳 CREDIT (0-20pts)✓ Good: HYG rising, TLT flat — Junk bonds healthy
⚠ Watch: HYG falling alone — Junk stress, adds 4pts
✗ Bad: HYG↓ + TLT↑ — Risk-off flight = +7pts. Leads equities by 2-6 weeks

Credit is the earliest warning. If HYG falls, stocks follow 2-4 weeks later.
0/20
💧LIQUID
💧 LIQUIDITY (0-15pts)✓ Good: SOFR <5.3%, RRP >$400B
⚠ Watch: SOFR 5.3–5.8% — Mild funding pressure
✗ Bad: SOFR >6% — Repo freeze risk (+9pts). RRP<$100B = drain

2019 repo crisis: SOFR spiked to 10% overnight. BTC funding negative = squeeze setup.
0/15
⚡OPTIONS
⚡ OPTIONS (0-10pts)✓ Good: SKEW<130, VIX9D<VIX — Normal contango
⚠ Watch: SKEW 130–140 — Mild tail risk hedging
✗ Bad: SKEW >140 or VIX9D>VIX — Hidden fear, institutions buying crash protection

SKEW>155 historically precedes major corrections by 2-8 weeks.
0/10
🌍GLOBAL
🌍 GLOBAL (0-10pts)✓ Good: JPY weak, CNH stable — Carry trade intact
⚠ Watch: JPY +0.5–1% — Carry unwind beginning
✗ Bad: JPY >+1% — Carry unwind cascade, global risk-off (+4pts)

KSA drop + oil rise = Saudi shadow loop breaking. CIBR+GBP divergence = tech-war signal.
0/10
BEARISH VS BULLISH
🔴 BEARISH 0
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🟢 BULLISH 0
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ALERT LOG
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SAFE HAVEN + SHADOW SIGNALS
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₿
BITCOIN
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Hard asset flight
🥇
GOLD (SPOT)
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Primary safe haven
🛢️
BRENT OIL
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Iran loop proxy
⚖️
GOLD/OIL RATIO
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Shadow liquidity signal
📊
VIX FEAR
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>30=high >40=panic
🏛️
20Y TREASURY
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Bond flight signal
💷
GBP/USD
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City of London stress
💵
DXY (USD)
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Falls under bank stress
🇯🇵
USD/JPY
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Carry unwind = global panic
🇨🇳
USD/CNH
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China offshore stress
💳
HYG (JUNK)
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Credit leads crashes
📉
HYG/TLT SPREAD
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Widens before stocks fall
⚡
VIX9D/VIX RATIO
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>1 = backwardation/panic
🔮
SKEW INDEX
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>140 = tail risk hedging
₿
BTC FUNDING
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Neg=squeeze bull setup
YIELD CURVE
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FED · BOE CALENDAR
🚨 EMERGENCY MEETING SIGNAL DETECTED
POLYMARKET · CROWD ODDS
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AI STRESS ANALYSIS
Click ⚡ ANALYSE to get an AI assessment of current banking stress conditions and BTC/Gold trade thesis.
CONTAGION RATIOS
GOLD/SILVER RATIO
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>90=shadow squeeze
JPM/(HSBC+DB)
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High=flight to fortress
SOFR RATE
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>6%=liquidity freeze
FED RRP ($B)
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↓Fast=liquidity drain
KSA ETF
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Saudi peg stress
CIBR ETF
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Tech-war signal
FED BALANCE
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↑=stealth QE
FED · BOE MACRO
F&G INDEX
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VIX LEVEL
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US 10Y YIELD
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2Y-10Y SPREAD
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GOLD/OIL RATIO
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GBP STRESS
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SHADOW BANKING THESIS
IRAN LOOP STATUS
⏳ Monitoring...
Iran energy credits → synthetic collateral → London repo. Watch Brent + GBP + HSBC CDS.
$2T CRE MATURITY WALL
2025–2027 peak risk window
Banks extending impaired CRE loans to avoid capital writeoffs. "Extend & pretend" strategy.
KEY EARLY WARNINGS
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BTC/GOLD TRADE THESIS
When score >55: BTC + Gold long bias
When KRE drops >5%: Hard asset flight begins
Gold/Oil ratio spike: Shadow liquidity drain
GBP drop >1%: London repo stress
BANK WATCHLIST
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SYMNAMEPRICECHG
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ALERT THRESHOLDS
WARN AT SCORE ≥
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